A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."